During Q4, the market value of long positions among institutional investors grew by 9.47% to $57.8 trillion, a record high.
At the same time, the ratio of net buyers to net sellers fell for a third consecutive quarter, signaling a continued trend of profit-taking.
As usual, the newest batch of 13F filings revealed no shortage of notable trades. David Tepper and Michael Burry’s big China bets? Nvidia with a Nebius position? Druckenmiller buying… Skechers? Lets jump right in.
Stanley Druckenmiller - Duquesne Family Office
Number of Positions: 78
Top New Positions: UAL, SKX, AMZN, SLM, DAL calls
Top Buys: TEVA, UAL, SKX, AMZN, SLM
Top Sales: KRE, PM calls, FLUT, CPNG, AVGO
Average 13F Holding Period: 2.23 quarters
Skechers (SKX) was perhaps Druckenmiller’s most interesting buy. He purchased his entire stake of 1.07 million shares during Q4, ballooning the footwear company to Duquesne’s 10th largest 13F position.
Druckenmiller is also bullish on airlines. United Airlines (UAL) was his top purchase with other bets including DAL, AAL, and calls on all three companies.
As for big tech, Duquesne disclosed new positions in Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) while selling out of its entire 43,095 share position in Microsoft (MSFT). Amazon is Duquesne’s 11th largest position while Tesla trails much further behind at #51. The fund completely sold out of NVDA during Q3 of 2024.
Druckenmiller has always been a stock picker with a relatively short holding period, and his portfolio and trades reflects that.
“I wouldn’t worry about the market, I’d focus on individual stocks.
“I’ve been doing this for 49 years, and we’re probably going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite.”
“We’re a believer in animal spirits.”
“The economy looks very, very strong, at least for the next six months which is about as far out as one can see with any degree of confidence.”
“In terms of the market, I would say it’s complicated. Despite what I just said about the wonderful things about the economy, we have an earnings yield to bond yield, probably the most unattractive, not probably, the most unattractive in 20 years. So, you’re going to have this push of a strong economy versus bond yields rising in response to that strong economy, and that kind of makes me not have a strong opinion one way or the other.”
-Druckenmiller in a January CNBC Interview
Tiger Cub Activity
Light Street & Glen Kacher
Glen Kacher’s Light Street has been the top Tiger Cub hedge fund over the past two years. Driven by overweight semiconductor bets, Light Street was a top performer of 2024 with a 59.4% return following a 45.7% return in 2023.
Given the outsized returns, Kacher locked in NVDA gains as his largest quarterly sale while adding even more TSM puts to hedge his #1 position.
Number of Positions:
Top New Positions: MRVL, GDS, MBLY, MELI, WDAY
Top Buys: TSM puts, MRVL, GDS, MBLY, MELI
Top Sales: NVDA, BILL, BE, NCNO, AVGO
Average 13F Holding Period: 3.63 quarters
Tiger Global & Chase Coleman
Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global took on two new positions during the quarter: Zscaler (ZS) and Pinduoduo (PDD). Coleman also sold out of fintechs StoneCo (STNE) and Toast (TOST) while slashing his stake in Nu (NU) by 52%.
Tiger Global has struggled in recent years following a 56% drawdown in 2022. The hedge fund rose by 28.5% in 2023 and 23.8% in 2024. It has yet to recover its high-water mark.
Number of Positions: 49
Top New Positions: ZS, PDD
Top Buys: SPOT, LLY, ZS, PDD, RDDT
Top Sales: UNH, ZI, NU, TOST, APO
Average 13F Holding Period: 11.14 quarters
Discovery Capital & Robert Citrone
Robert Citrone is possibly the least known of the active Tiger Cubs, although Discovery Capital’s returns of 52% in 2024 and 48% in 2023 have spoken volumes.
Abnormal returns have made Citrone cautious. In his monthly January letter, Citrone noted that Discovery’s net equity exposure had fallen to 25% compared to 50% at the end of 2024. He added that he expects a 5% to 7% market correction, according to Institutional Investor.
“The catalyst for a potential correction is valuations, sticky inflation that we believe will pressure ten-year yields back toward 5 percent, and uncertainty around tariffs and expenditure cuts by [Elon] Musk.”
“This model [DeepSeek] reportedly developed at a fraction of the cost and energy consumption of other AI systems, [raising] questions about AI valuations and the long-term power demands. We believe this signals the early stages of AI’s commoditization, which will have far-reaching implications for the broader ecosystem.”
-Citrone, January 2025 Letter
Number of Positions: 78
Top New Positions: JPM, XOM, NBIS, BA, FBTC
Top Buys: JPM, XOP, XOM, NBIS, BA
Top Sales: APP, JD, BABA, PM, MCD
Average 13F Holding Period: 2.08 quarters
Read more about the top hedge funds of 2024 here:
Hedge Funds and the China Trade
David Tepper shocked investors in mid-2024 after revealing a 25% portfolio bet on Chinese stocks. His Chinese allocation has since jumped to a significant 37%. BABA, PDD, and JD alone account for 29% of his portfolio.
Given BABA’s YTD gain of 60% and PDD’s increase of 30%, Tepper’s China allocation is likely much larger today with billions of dollars of profit since Q4.
Estimated cost basis for Tepper’s China winners:
BABA - $80.87, +70% gain
FXI - $24.30, +47% gain
JD - $29.53, +40% gain
KWEB - $26.98, +32% gain
PDD - $122.41, +3% gain
Number of Positions: 37
Top New Positions: GLW
Top Buys: VST, BABA, JD, NRG, GLW
Top Sales: AMZN, ADBE, META, EQT, ET
Average 13F Holding Period: 10.86 quarters
Read more about Tepper’s call to buy “everything” China last September:
Michael Burry also emerged as a China bull last year and his stance remains solid. BABA, BIDU, JD, and PDD are responsible for 53% of his 13F portfolio. In addition, Burry exited his put positions on BABA, BIDU, and JD.
Number of Positions: 13
Top New Positions: None
Top Buys: EL, PDD, HCA, BRKR, VFC
Top Sales: JD puts, BABA puts, FOUR, JD, BIDU puts
Average 13F Holding Period: 10.86 quarters
On the other side of the China trade was Philippe Laffont’s Coatue Management. The Tiger Cub slashed his stakes in KWEB, BABA, PDD, and JD by 95.84%, 92.90%, 92.86%, and 92.55%, respectively.
Despite the sales, Laffont took on new small positions in Chinese fintechs Futu (FUTU), LexinFintech (LX), and Qifu Technology (QFIN).
Number of Positions: 68
Top New Positions: RDDT, NOW, SCHW, SMCI.QQ, HUBS
Top Buys: RDDT, TEAM, NOW, SCHW, SMCI.QQ
Top Sales: CMG, JD, CEG, PDD, BABA.
Average 13F Holding Period: 9.07 quarters
Druckenmiller has also voiced his concerns on investing in China. “As long as Xi Jinping is running China, I have no interest,” he said at a conference last September.
Forget Yandex…Meet Nebius
Nebius might have pulled off the rebrand of the century. Originally known as Yandex (YNDX), or the “Google of Russia,” its Nasdaq-listed shares were suspended in February 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Now, get this. Yandex isn’t a Russian entity. It’s actually a Dutch holding company. By July 2024, Yandex had enough of the backlash and decided to sell all of its Russian operations to a group of Russian investors for $5.4 billion. The sale was made under pressure, as Yandex’s valuation was about half of what it was before the war. Its evident that the company was desperately trying to shrug off its Russian persona.
Yandex was able to retain four of its AI businesses, and from there, Nebius was born. Last October, Yandex shareholders woke up to find Nebius shares instead.
Nebius is an AI cloud platform that provides computing power for AI workloads. In December 2024, the company received major recognition after Nvidia announced that it would participate in its $700 million funding round. The two companies have collaborated since 2017 following Yandex’s push into AI and cloud computing.
NBIS received another boost after Nvidia’s 13F revealed a stake in the company, even though news of the deal first broke in December. Talk about efficient markets. Other NBIS shareholders include Soros Capital, Kora Management, Samlyn Capital, Mubadala, and Discovery Capital.
Number of Positions: 5
Top New Positions: NBIS, WRD
Top Buys: NBIS, WRD
Top Sales: ARM, SERV, SOUN, NNOX
Average 13F Holding Period: 1.8 quarters
Nvidia’s positions should be taken with a grain of salt, as its portfolio is derived from the shares it receives in deals. Nvidia’s sales are the most useful part of its 13F filings, revealing a complete divesture in NNOX, SERV, and SOUN. Could NBIS experience the same fate? Nvidia’s average 13F holding period of just 1.8 quarters signals yes.
ServiceTitan - Tech IPO Spotlight
ServiceTitan, a cloud-based customer relationship management software platform geared for tradespeople, had its Nasdaq IPO on December 12, 2024. The company raised $625 million by selling 8.8 million shares at $71 a piece. Since then, TTAN is up by nearly 40%.
ServiceTitan has received private funding from several notable investors, including:
ICONIQ - 15.51 million shares
Dragoneer - 2.04 million shares
Tiger Global - 1.30 million shares
SCGE Management - 1.22 million shares
Other shareholders include Altimeter, Coatue, Whale Rock, and Maverick Capital.
With ServiceTitan now a public entity, the big question is how these investors will respond in the coming quarters. Selling privately acquired shares following an IPO is a very common and profitable practice and shareholders should closely monitor the company’s share lockup expiration dates.
13F Filings From Top Hedge Funds
For the readers who prefer to just view 13Fs, here are 11 portfolios from top hedge funds with long average holding periods:
Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett
Number of Positions: 41
Top New Positions: STZ
Top Buys: STZ, DPZ, OXY, SIRI, VRSN
Top Sales: BAC, C, NU, COF, CHTR
Average 13F Holding Period: 24.45 quarters
Altimeter - Brad Gerstner
Number of Positions: 24
Top New Positions: CART, FLUT, TWLO, MU, TTAN
Top Buys: CART, FLUT, TWLO, MU, GOOGL
Top Sales: SNOW, UBER, MSFT, META KWEB
Average 13F Holding Period: 6.67 quarters
SRS Investment Management - Karthik Sarma
Number of Positions: 20
Top New Positions: VSCO, DECK, HUM, WDC
Top Buys: UAL, VSCO, BURL, DECK, HUM
Top Sales: META, TEAM, ELV, NFLX, PDD
Average 13F Holding Period: 11.5 quarters
SCGE Management - Jeff Wang
Number of Positions: 23
Top New Positions: AVGO, TEAM, CVNA, FICO, TTAN
Top Buys: AVGO, SHOP, TEAM, CVNA, FICO
Top Sales: MSFT, NU, PDD, META, CRWD
Average 13F Holding Period: 10.13 quarters
Whale Rock - Alex Sacerdote
Number of Positions: 38
Top New Positions: RDDT, TEAM, AAPL, TWLO, ALKT
Top Buys: RDDT, CRM, TEAM, SMTC, AAPL
Top Sales: APP, CLS, MPWR, GWRE, GOOGL
Average 13F Holding Period: 6.21 quarters
Pershing Square - Bill Ackman
Number of Positions: 11
Top New Positions: None
Top Buys: NKE, BN, SEG
Top Sales: HLT, CMG, SEG rights
Average 13F Holding Period: 18.4 quarters
Lone Pine - Stephen Mandel
Number of Positions: 30
Top New Positions: LLY, COF, FLUT, CFR
Top Buys: LLY, COF, FLUT, PM, SBUX
Top Sales: UNH, APP, AMZN, XYZ, BKNG
Average 13F Holding Period: 6.03 quarters
TCI Fund - Chris Hohn
Number of Positions: 10
Top New Positions: None
Top Buys: MSFT, FER
Top Sales: CNI, GE, GOOG
Average 13F Holding Period: 22.3 quarters
Dorsey Asset Management - Pat Dorsey
Number of Positions: 11
Top New Positions: None
Top Buys: GOOG, AZO, DHR, PYPL, SPT
Top Sales: APP, HRI, META, SMAR
Average 13F Holding Period: 16.18 quarters
Peconic Partners - William Harnisch
Number of Positions: 12
Top New Positions: UBER, CMCSA, VST, SHLS, EQT
Top Buys: UBER, CMCSA, VST, SHLS, EQT
Top Sales: PWR, EEM, IBM
Average 13F Holding Period: 7.83 quarters
Foxhaven Asset Management - Mike Pausic & Nick Lawler
Number of Positions: 20
Top New Positions: AFRM, CRM
Top Buys: AFRM, CRM, RBLX, MELI, AMZN
Top Sales: FWONK, BKNG, HLT, CARG, SHW
Average 13F Holding Period: 12.65 quarters
Hedge Vision - Institutional Insights
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Interesting that Tiger Global opened a new position in $ZS. I'm a bit concerned about Zscaler's continued revenue growth slowdown. I'll be closely monitoring their Q4 earnings, hoping for growth stabilization.